Ontario real estate growth – In a year where much of Ontario’s real estate market has been grappling with challenges, including a notable decline in transactions and new listings, several cities have defied the broader provincial trend. The slowdown in 2024 has surprised many, especially after the Bank of Canada’s policy rates were reduced in an effort to stimulate activity. Yet, despite historically low interest rates, buyer demand across most of the province has remained tepid, with a 10% decrease in transactions and a significant 21.4% drop in new listings recorded in August 2024.
Still, not all cities in Ontario have followed this path. Some have not only weathered the downturn but have shown surprising resilience, with real estate transactions climbing even as the broader market struggled. Four cities—St. Catharines, Brampton, Brantford, and Pickering—have emerged as unexpected outliers, each with their own unique combination of factors driving growth. In this article, we’ll dive deep into the real estate markets of these cities and explore what’s behind their success.
St. Catharines: A 23% Surge Driven by Affordability and Economic Strength
Topping the list of Ontario’s real estate surprises is St. Catharines, which saw an astounding 23% increase in real estate transactions in August 2024. This surge has caught the attention of many, as St. Catharines defied the general market downturn and became the strongest-performing city among the four outliers.
The Affordability Factor
One of the key drivers behind St. Catharines’ success is its affordability. While other cities in Ontario have seen home prices skyrocket in recent years, St. Catharines has managed to maintain a relatively lower average home price. This affordability has made the city particularly attractive to buyers who are priced out of more expensive markets like Toronto and Mississauga.
For prospective homebuyers looking for a break from the high price tags in larger urban centers, St. Catharines offers an enticing alternative. The average home price in the city is significantly below the provincial average, which continues to attract a wide array of buyers—from first-time homeowners to retirees. This price difference is not just a small gap; it is substantial enough to sway buyers who are looking to stretch their dollars further.
Proximity to Toronto
Adding to St. Catharines’ allure is its proximity to Toronto, Canada’s largest city and one of its most expensive housing markets. Located just an hour and a half away by car, St. Catharines offers a more affordable housing option for those who are willing to commute or work remotely. The city’s relative closeness to Toronto also means that buyers can enjoy the benefits of big-city amenities without the prohibitive cost of Toronto’s real estate.
A Thriving Local Economy
Beyond affordability, St. Catharines boasts a thriving local economy that has supported its real estate market. The city has seen growth in industries like manufacturing, healthcare, and education, which has bolstered employment and attracted new residents. The strong job market has created more demand for housing, further fueling the real estate surge. In particular, the city’s employment rates have remained relatively stable, even amid economic challenges, making it a desirable location for those seeking both job security and affordable housing.
A Balanced Market for Buyers and Sellers
Interestingly, while sales in St. Catharines have soared, prices have dipped slightly. This slight price decline has not discouraged buyers—in fact, it has made the market even more appealing for those looking to buy. The combination of lower prices and a strong job market means that St. Catharines offers excellent value for money, making it an attractive destination for buyers who want to maximize their investment. For sellers, the increase in transactions indicates that there is no shortage of demand, despite the slight dip in home prices. This balance between affordability, demand, and supply has created a healthy real estate market that continues to grow.
Brampton: Resilience in a Cooling Market
Another city defying Ontario’s real estate slowdown is Brampton, which saw a 6.22% increase in home sales in August 2024. While not as dramatic as St. Catharines, this growth is still impressive given the broader challenges facing the provincial market. Brampton’s real estate market has remained resilient, with buyers continuing to show interest despite slight price declines.
The Rise of Detached and Semi-Detached Homes
One of the key factors driving growth in Brampton is the rising demand for detached and semi-detached homes. As families look for more space—particularly in the wake of the pandemic—these larger homes have become increasingly desirable. The slight decline in average home prices in Brampton, amounting to approximately $30,000 over the past three months, has further encouraged buyers to take advantage of favorable market conditions.
Detached and semi-detached homes offer the kind of space and privacy that many buyers are now prioritizing, and Brampton has an abundance of these property types. As the urban sprawl of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continues, buyers are looking to Brampton as a more affordable alternative, where they can still find spacious homes within commuting distance to Toronto.
Price Adjustments That Benefit Buyers
In August, Brampton saw a modest 1.92% drop in average home prices, with the average home value standing at $987,433. While this may seem like a negative trend, it has actually created an opportunity for buyers. The reduction in prices has made homes more accessible to those who may have been priced out earlier, and this has helped sustain buyer interest in the city. For many, this slight price drop represents a chance to secure a home in a desirable area at a more affordable cost, which has contributed to the resilience of Brampton’s real estate market.
A City with Strong Appeal
Brampton’s appeal goes beyond affordability and housing options. It is one of the most diverse cities in Canada, with a vibrant cultural scene and a range of amenities that cater to its large and growing population. From excellent schools to shopping centers and recreational facilities, Brampton offers a high quality of life that attracts families, professionals, and retirees alike.
Brantford: Steady Growth in a Competitive Market
The third city bucking the provincial trend is Brantford, which saw a 3.25% increase in home sales in August 2024. While the increase may seem modest compared to St. Catharines or Brampton, Brantford’s steady growth is noteworthy in a market that has been largely characterized by slowdowns.
The Appeal of Affordable Housing
One of the primary drivers of Brantford’s real estate market is its affordability. In April 2024, the average home price in Brantford reached $710,000, a substantial increase from the $636,000 average in the previous period. However, even with this price increase, Brantford remains more affordable than other nearby cities like Toronto and Mississauga. For buyers who are looking for value without compromising on location, Brantford is a compelling choice.
Affordability, in particular, has made Brantford a popular destination for first-time homebuyers, many of whom are looking for homes that offer more space and better value than what they could find in larger cities. Additionally, Brantford’s proximity to the GTA means that buyers can still enjoy the benefits of living close to a major urban center without the high price tag.
A Growing Community
Beyond its affordability, Brantford offers a growing and vibrant community. The city has seen an influx of new residents in recent years, drawn by its strong sense of community, excellent schools, and expanding infrastructure. For families looking for a safe and welcoming environment to raise their children, Brantford has become an increasingly attractive option. The city’s growth has not only spurred demand for housing but has also led to increased investment in local businesses and amenities, further boosting its appeal.
Pickering: Stability Amid Volatility
Rounding out the list of surprising real estate markets is Pickering, which saw a 1.98% increase in home sales in August 2024. While this increase may seem small compared to the other cities on the list, it is significant when considering the broader provincial context. In some cities, sales have dropped by as much as 28%, making Pickering’s growth all the more impressive.
Proximity to Toronto
Pickering’s close proximity to Toronto has long been one of its main selling points, and it continues to be a key factor driving its real estate market. Located just a short drive or train ride away from downtown Toronto, Pickering offers the benefits of suburban living while still being close to the city’s employment opportunities, cultural attractions, and amenities. This proximity has made Pickering a popular choice for professionals who work in Toronto but want to escape the city’s high housing prices and congestion.
Stability in Pricing
One of the defining features of Pickering’s real estate market has been its relative stability. While many other cities have seen sharp fluctuations in home prices, Pickering’s average home prices have remained fairly consistent, ranging between $960,000 and $997,000 since April 2024. This price stability has given buyers confidence that the market is not overly volatile, which has helped sustain demand.
Family-Friendly Appeal
Pickering’s reputation as a family-friendly community is another factor that has contributed to its real estate growth. With excellent schools, parks, and recreational facilities, the city offers a high quality of life that appeals to families looking for a safe and welcoming place to settle down. Additionally, the city’s expanding infrastructure and development projects have made it an even more attractive option for those looking to invest in real estate.
Conclusion: A Tale of Four Cities
While Ontario’s real estate market has faced its share of challenges in 2024, the experiences of St. Catharines, Brampton, Brantford, and Pickering show that not all cities are created equal. These four cities have defied the provincial slowdown, each driven by a unique combination of affordability, location, and local economic factors. Whether it’s St. Catharines’ affordability and thriving job market, Brampton’s demand for detached homes, Brantford’s steady growth in a competitive market, or Pickering’s stability and family-friendly appeal, these cities offer valuable insights into what’s driving real estate growth in Ontario.
Looking ahead, it’s clear that while the overall market may be cooling, there are still pockets of opportunity for buyers and sellers alike. With the right conditions, including further interest rate cuts and continued investment in local economies, we may see more cities follow in the footsteps of these surprising outliers. For now, though, the real estate markets of St. Catharines, Brampton, Brantford, and Pickering stand as bright spots in an otherwise slowing provincial market.
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