The Canadian real estate market remained subdued in April 2025, with national home sales essentially flatlining and new listings continuing to decline. After several consecutive months of decreasing sales activity, this month’s slight 0.1% dip compared to March signals a temporary stabilization—but not a recovery. The housing market appears to be entering a new chapter of caution and hesitance, shaped not by interest rate volatility this time, but by growing concerns around economic uncertainty and international trade tensions.
For prospective buyers, sellers, and industry watchers alike, April’s numbers offer a snapshot of a market that is both cooling and balancing. Let’s take a detailed look at what’s happening beneath the surface.
1. Market Activity Levels Off
April marked the fourth consecutive month of declining or stagnating housing activity. According to national data collected from MLS® Systems across Canada, home sales edged down just 0.1% compared to March 2025. While a marginal drop, it’s notable because it breaks the pattern of more pronounced monthly declines earlier in the year. The market isn’t falling further—but it’s not bouncing back either.
This leveling off puts monthly sales volumes close to levels last seen in late 2022, a time when the market was recalibrating in response to rising interest rates. Now, in 2025, we’re witnessing a similar plateau, albeit triggered by different factors. High borrowing costs have largely stabilized, but uncertainty tied to economic performance and global trade has stepped in as a new deterrent to buyer confidence.
2. New Listings Drop as Sellers Wait
In April, new listings fell by 1% compared to March, reflecting a continued reluctance among property owners to list their homes. While some homeowners may be hesitant due to market conditions or price softening, others could be waiting to see if improved economic signals in the coming months will offer better prospects.
This decline in listings contributed to a slight uptick in the national sales-to-new listings ratio, which rose from 46.4% in March to 46.8% in April. Although this remains below the long-term average of 54.9%, it’s still within the range generally associated with balanced market conditions (between 40% and 60%).
The sales-to-new listings ratio is a critical metric used to assess market balance. A lower ratio often suggests a buyer’s market, where supply exceeds demand, and prices face downward pressure. A higher ratio points toward a seller’s market, with demand outpacing supply and upward pricing pressure. With April’s ratio hovering just under 47%, the market remains balanced, albeit leaning slightly in favor of buyers.
3. Inventory Growing but Still Below Average
By the end of April 2025, there were 183,000 residential properties listed for sale across Canadian MLS® Systems. That figure represents a 14.3% increase over April 2024, a sign that supply is slowly rebuilding after years of constrained availability. However, despite the increase, inventory remains below the historical average for this time of year. Typically, April sees about 201,000 active listings nationally.
The measure of months of inventory—which represents how long it would take to sell current listings at the current pace of sales—stood at 5.1 months in April. This matches the long-term average and reinforces the notion of a market in balance, where supply and demand are relatively aligned. That said, any shift in either direction—such as a sudden rise in forced selling or a drop in buyer activity—could quickly upset that equilibrium.
4. Home Prices Continue to Ease
One of the most notable aspects of April’s report is the continued decline in home prices. The National Composite Home Price Index (HPI) fell 1.2% month-over-month, and was down 3.6% compared to April 2024. This is the latest in a series of gradual price reductions, reflecting a market that is slowly adjusting to softer demand and higher inventory levels.
The national average home price in April was $679,866, a 3.9% decline year-over-year. While still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, this dip may offer a glimmer of hope for buyers who have been priced out of the market in recent years.
Importantly, the price decline has not been uniform across regions or property types. Markets that saw the most dramatic appreciation during the pandemic years—especially in Ontario and British Columbia—are now experiencing the sharpest corrections. Meanwhile, provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, where price growth was more measured, have remained relatively stable.
5. Economic Uncertainty Is the New Wild Card
What’s keeping the market from rebounding? According to market analysts and economists, much of the current stagnation can be attributed to broader economic uncertainties. With inflation largely under control and interest rates holding steady, one might expect real estate activity to resume. However, the lingering impact of tariff anxieties, supply chain disruptions, and concerns about a potential economic slowdown are weighing on both buyers and sellers.
Tariff-related uncertainty is a growing concern, particularly as trade tensions between major global economies continue to influence material costs and consumer sentiment. Higher prices for construction materials, for example, can discourage new home development, slow renovations, and impact affordability.
Furthermore, there is apprehension that a rise in forced selling could emerge if the economy takes a downturn. If even a modest proportion of homeowners begin selling out of necessity—due to job loss, rising expenses, or falling asset values—this could shift the balance toward a true buyer’s market for the first time in years.
6. Regional Market Highlights
Ontario
Ontario continues to be one of the most active markets, but also one of the most volatile. Cities like Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa have seen a significant drop in year-over-year sales and moderate price declines. Inventory is rebuilding slowly, though still not at optimal levels.
British Columbia
In Vancouver and surrounding areas, the market remains soft. Price corrections are underway, and luxury segments are seeing some of the steepest drops. Demand has cooled notably, especially for detached homes, as affordability challenges persist.
Prairies
The Prairie provinces—Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba—have shown more resilience. Inventory levels are stable, prices are flat or modestly increasing, and demand remains steady due to relatively affordable housing.
Atlantic Canada
This region has experienced continued demand, particularly from out-of-province buyers and retirees. While prices have softened slightly, they remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic benchmarks.
7. Buyer Sentiment: Cautious but Watching
For buyers, the current environment presents a mixed bag. On one hand, falling prices and rising inventory are creating opportunities to purchase in a less competitive market. On the other hand, many potential buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, wary of the possibility that prices could fall further or that the broader economy could weaken.
Moreover, the cost of borrowing remains relatively high, and although rate hikes have paused, affordability challenges persist. Many buyers are also factoring in uncertainty around employment, inflation, and policy changes when making decisions.
8. Seller Sentiment: Hesitant and Strategic
Sellers, meanwhile, are becoming increasingly strategic. With fewer bidding wars and slower movement on listings, some homeowners are choosing to delay their sale until market conditions improve. Others are adjusting their expectations, pricing more competitively and being prepared to negotiate.
What we’re seeing is a shift toward more realistic pricing and longer listing durations—a significant change from the frenetic pace of the pandemic years.
9. The Rental Market and Investment Properties
The rental market continues to play a key role in the broader housing ecosystem. In many cities, strong rental demand and low vacancy rates are encouraging investors to hold onto properties, even in the face of softening sale prices. Rents remain elevated in most urban centers, particularly in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.
For those investing in real estate for income rather than capital gains, the rental market’s strength provides some insulation against declining home values. However, rising operating costs and changing regulations in some jurisdictions could alter this equation in the months ahead.
10. Looking Ahead: What to Expect in the Second Half of 2025
As we move deeper into 2025, several key factors will shape the housing market:
Economic growth or contraction: Much depends on whether Canada can avoid a recession or major economic slowdown.
Tariff and trade policies: Any resolution—or escalation—of international trade tensions could affect material costs, inflation, and consumer confidence.
Interest rate direction: While rate increases have paused, the possibility of rate cuts later in the year could stimulate activity, especially if paired with a stable economy.
Government policy and regulation: Ongoing initiatives around housing affordability, development incentives, and investor regulations may impact market dynamics, especially in urban areas.
Final Thoughts
April 2025 reveals a Canadian housing market that is neither hot nor crashing—it’s cool, cautious, and balanced. After years of dramatic shifts, the market is now behaving in a more predictable and measured way, shaped by macroeconomic trends and evolving consumer sentiment.
Buyers should view the current environment as an opportunity for more considered decisions and less frenzied competition. Sellers should be prepared for longer sales cycles and realistic pricing. And industry professionals—from agents to investors—must remain attuned to the subtle but significant changes occurring in this new phase of the market.
While no one can predict the future with certainty, one thing is clear: Canada’s housing market in 2025 is entering a new era, one defined by balance, caution, and adaptability.
