Canadian Home Sales – Canada’s housing market has entered a dynamic new phase in 2025, and June data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) confirms what many real estate watchers have been hoping to see: a clear upward trend in home sales and a pause in price declines. While the market is still adjusting to economic factors like interest rates and supply challenges, the signs of stabilization are unmistakable.
In this detailed analysis, we’ll explore what the latest CREA figures mean, how market conditions are evolving across key regions like the GTA and Vancouver, and what buyers, investors, and sellers can expect in the months ahead.
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1. June 2025 at a Glance: Data Overview of Canadian Home Sales
Home Sales Rise for the Second Consecutive Month
In June 2025, home sales across Canadian MLS® systems climbed by 2.8% month-over-month, following a 3.5% increase in May. This marks the second straight month of growth and signals a real shift in momentum, especially in major urban centers.
Notably, sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) have surged by over 17% since April, showing that the spring rebound many experts predicted is finally materializing.
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Price Stabilization: A Welcome Pause
Home prices in Canada have largely stabilized, following a rocky spring marked by several months of declines. The national MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) dipped just 0.2% from May to June, a minimal drop compared to the near 1% monthly drops seen earlier this year.
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2. The Demand Surge: What’s Fueling It?
Despite uncertainty in the broader economy and geopolitical risks like potential tariffs, consumer sentiment appears to be improving. Buyers are increasingly confident, encouraged by:
Expectations of interest rate cuts later in 2025
Slowing inflation
Improved inventory in some provinces
FOMO among buyers fearing rising prices again
The revival in sales activity also coincides with seasonal trends, as spring and summer are traditionally busy periods in Canadian real estate.
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3. Inventory and Listings: A Tale of Two Markets
Fewer New Listings – Why This Matters
Although sales are rising, new listings declined 2.9% in June. This means the supply of homes entering the market isn’t keeping pace with demand. As a result:
The sales-to-new-listings ratio climbed to 50.1%, up from 47.3% in May
The market continues to hover between balanced and seller-favouring
At the end of June, there were just over 206,000 homes listed across the country—roughly 4.7 months of inventory, which is 11.4% more than the same time in 2024.
This tightening dynamic is pushing buyers to act faster, especially in hot zones like Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe and Metro Vancouver.
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4. Regional Spotlights: Who’s Gaining Ground?
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
The GTA remains Canada’s most influential real estate market, and June numbers reveal a solid rebound. Prices are holding steady, and sales volumes are rising sharply. Demand for condos and townhomes is especially strong among first-time buyers and downsizers.
Vancouver
Vancouver shows signs of a modest recovery, though affordability challenges persist. Detached homes remain out of reach for many, but the attached segment—condos and townhouses—is seeing increased activity.
Calgary & Edmonton
These markets are outperforming national trends. Alberta continues to attract interprovincial migrants with its affordable pricing, no PST, and strong job growth. Price appreciation remains modest but stable.
Montreal & Quebec
After a cooling period, Quebec’s markets are also firming up. The Montreal metro area is seeing increased demand in suburban sectors and growing interest from foreign buyers.
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5. Price Trends: What Stabilization Really Means
National Average Price: $691,643
The national average home price was $691,643 in June, down 1.3% compared to June 2024. While this may seem discouraging, the rate of decline is slowing, and in some regions, prices are flat or slightly rising.
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MLS® Home Price Index (HPI): -0.2% Month Over Month
The small dip in the HPI suggests that the market has found a pricing floor—at least for now. With interest rates possibly heading downward and demand heating up, the next quarter could bring modest price appreciation in some areas.
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6. Investor Insights: Is Now a Good Time to Buy?
For real estate investors, the message from June’s numbers is clear: momentum is building.
Why Investors Are Taking Notice:
Price stability after months of volatility
Stronger rental demand across most provinces
More inventory compared to 2021-2022 boom years
Rate expectations could unlock financing opportunities later this year
Multifamily and pre-construction assets in urban cores are seeing revived investor interest, particularly in Toronto, Mississauga, Calgary, and Surrey.
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7. First-Time Buyers: Navigating a Competitive Market
June’s data presents a double-edged sword for first-time homebuyers:
The Good News:
Slight price relief compared to 2022-2023
More listings than pandemic peak years
Sellers are more negotiable on closing timelines
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The Challenge:
Fewer new listings = higher competition
Stress test rules still stringent
Down payments remain a hurdle
Many first-time buyers are opting for condos and pre-construction homes where incentives and phased payments are more attractive.
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8. What’s Holding the Market Back?
Despite positive momentum, there are headwinds to watch:
1. Global Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty
A proposed 35% import tariff has shaken market confidence. If implemented, it could raise construction costs and delay new inventory.
2. High Interest Rates
Though rates have plateaued, they remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. Many buyers are still priced out of detached homes.
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3. Labour and Material Shortages
Construction timelines remain under pressure due to labour shortages, especially in Ontario and BC.
9. CREA’s Outlook: What’s Ahead for the Rest of 2025?
CREA economists suggest that the anticipated rebound may have simply been delayed, not canceled. With consumer confidence improving and more predictable macroeconomic conditions, the summer and fall seasons may see a surge in activity.
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Expect a gradual price recovery, especially in:
GTA suburbs (Pickering, Vaughan, Brampton)
Calgary & Edmonton’s core neighbourhoods
Secondary BC markets like Kelowna and Kamloops
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10. Tips for Buyers and Sellers Right Now
Buyers:
Lock in mortgage pre-approvals now before possible rate drops
Focus on well-located resale properties or new builds with incentives
Act decisively in markets with tightening supply
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Sellers:
Ensure your home is priced competitively
Improve curb appeal and staging to stand out
Use June’s momentum to your advantage before summer slows down
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11. Final Thoughts: A Market Turning the Corner
June 2025 may be remembered as the month Canadian housing markets began to turn the page. After months of caution, activity is picking up, and price declines have all but stalled. Whether you’re an investor, first-time buyer, or looking to downsize, the signals point to a market that is normalizing and creating new opportunities.
Buyers still have negotiating power in many regions, but that window may close quickly if trends continue. For sellers, timing is key—list now while competition remains moderate and buyers are eager.
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As always, localized insights matter most. Partner with a trusted real estate advisor in your area to navigate these changing dynamics.
